Wage Growth by Industry: How to Read the Real Numbers

See how wage growth differs by industry in the US, which BLS, Atlanta Fed and SSA measures to trust, and how to use them in a raise or hiring decision.

By the Salary Atlas editorial team · Published 2026-10-25

Wage growth by industry means the change in pay for workers in a sector, such as leisure and hospitality or manufacturing, over a set period, usually 12 months. No single number gives you that. You have to pick the measure that matches your question: average hourly earnings, the Atlanta Fed's median wage growth for the same workers, or the Social Security Administration's national average. Each answers something different, and mixing them up is the most common mistake we see.

This guide explains the three main measures, shows where to find the industry breakdowns, and walks through how to use them whether you are negotiating a raise, advising a client or setting a pay band.

TL;DR

There is no single "wage growth by industry" figure. Average hourly earnings, median wage growth of tracked individuals and the national average wage index all measure different things.
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker followed the same workers over 12 months and put overall median growth at 3.9 percent in September 2026. It also publishes an industry view.
Average hourly earnings by sector come from the BLS payroll survey and are shown in dollars per hour. They are easy to find but shift when the mix of jobs changes.
Nominal growth is not the same as real growth. A 4 percent raise in a 3 percent inflation year is about a 1 percent gain in buying power.
Use industry growth as context, then check the level of pay for your exact job title and state before you act.

Three measures that get called "wage growth"
Nominal versus real: what a raise is actually worth
How to compare industries without fooling yourself
Why industries diverge
What this means if you are job hunting
What this means if you set pay
Our perspective
Look up pay for your own job
FAQ
Sources

Three measures that get called "wage growth"

When people search for wage growth by industry they usually land on one of three data sets. They look similar on a chart. They are not interchangeable.

Measure	Publisher	What it tracks	Best for
Average hourly earnings by industry	Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)	Average dollars per hour across all employees in a sector	Seeing the pay level and its drift in a sector
Wage Growth Tracker	Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, using Current Population Survey microdata	Median percent change in hourly wage for the same people 12 months apart	Seeing what a typical worker's raise looks like
National Average Wage Index	Social Security Administration	Average wage per worker across the whole economy	Benefit formulas and economy-wide benchmarks

Average hourly earnings: easy to find, easy to misread

The BLS publishes average hourly earnings for private industry sectors every month. For example, FRED's series for leisure and hospitality, sourced from the BLS, showed $23.90 an hour in September 2026, up from $23.59 in May 2026.

The catch is composition. An average includes whoever happens to be employed that month. If lower-paid workers leave a sector, the average rises even though nobody got a raise. If a wave of entry-level hires arrives, it can fall even when everyone's pay is climbing. Average earnings tell you where a sector sits, but they are a noisy guide to how fast an individual's pay is growing.

The Atlanta Fed tracker: same people, 12 months apart

The Wage Growth Tracker gets around the composition problem. According to Atlanta Fed researchers, it follows the median percent change in the hourly wage of the same individuals observed 12 months apart, which avoids the noise from workers entering or leaving an industry.

The latest reading, updated October 8, 2026, showed the three-month overall figure at 3.9 percent for September, down from 4.1 percent the month before. Workers who stayed in their jobs saw 3.4 percent, while job switchers saw 4.7 percent. That gap matters for anyone weighing a move, and we come back to it below.

Wage growth comparison for stayers and switchers

The tracker is built from Current Population Survey microdata, and the Atlanta Fed page lists an industry cut among its downloads. FRED also hosts industry versions, including a 12-month moving average of median wage growth for leisure and hospitality and other services.

The national average wage index: not an industry measure at all

The SSA's index is often confused with industry wage growth. The National Average Wage Index for 2025 is $72,800.33, which is 4.23 percent higher than for 2024. It covers wages subject to federal income taxes and deferred compensation plans, and it exists to compute Social Security benefits.

SSA is explicit that an average wage is an average per worker, not per job. It reflects how earners are distributed across the whole economy. Use it as a national yardstick, not as a stand-in for what electricians or nurses are seeing.

Nominal versus real: what a raise is actually worth

Every figure above is nominal unless stated otherwise. Real wage growth subtracts inflation, and it can tell a very different story.

BLS data show real average hourly earnings rose 0.8 percent from September 2024 to September 2025, seasonally adjusted. Month to month, the picture can swing. In March 2026, real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.6 percent from February, as prices rose faster than pay in that month.

A quick rule for your own situation: take your percentage raise, subtract the latest year-over-year inflation rate, and the remainder is your real change. If your industry's median growth is 3.4 percent and inflation is 3 percent, a typical stayer is gaining about 0.4 percent in purchasing power, which is hardly a windfall.

How to compare industries without fooling yourself

Here is the process we recommend, in order.

Decide the question. Are you asking how much sector pay has drifted (average hourly earnings), what a typical worker's raise looks like (Wage Growth Tracker), or the national backdrop (SSA index)?
Match the time window. Compare 12-month changes with 12-month changes. A single month of average hourly earnings can bounce around.
Check whether it is nominal or real. Never compare a nominal industry figure with a real one.
Look at the level, not only the growth. A fast-growing sector that started low can still pay less than a slow-growing one. A 5 percent rise on $20 an hour is $1. A 3 percent rise on $50 is $1.50.
Drill down to your job title and state. Industry averages hide enormous spread. A software developer at a bank and a bank teller share an industry and little else.

That last step is where most readers should end up. Our guide to finding BLS salary data by job and state shows how to pull the mean, median and percentiles for a specific occupation.

Why industries diverge

Industry wage growth does not move in lockstep, and the reasons are mostly structural.

Labor demand. Sectors short of workers bid up pay. Healthcare is the clearest example of sustained demand, and our look at the fastest growing jobs explains where employment is projected to expand most. Pay level and floors. Low-wage sectors such as leisure and hospitality are sensitive to minimum wage changes and tight labor markets, so their percentage growth can look high even when dollar gains are modest. That is why the Atlanta Fed and FRED highlight that sector in their industry breakdowns. Hours and overtime. Hourly earnings do not capture a change in hours. In care work, where scheduling and overtime rules vary by state, the effective pay depends on tracked hours. A worked example of how those rates compare is in this breakdown of nanny versus daycare cost. Job switching. The tracker shows switchers out-earning stayers, 4.7 percent against 3.4 percent in September 2026. Industries with high turnover can therefore show faster wage growth than industries where people stay put. Mix of workers. If an industry shifts toward higher-skill roles, the average rises with no one's raise changing. This is the distortion the same-worker method is designed to remove. Why industries diverge, overview diagram

Why industries diverge, overview diagram

What this means if you are job hunting

Industry growth is a clue about leverage, not a promise. If your sector's median growth sits below the all-industry figure, it does not mean you cannot get more. It means you will probably need outside evidence. The Atlanta Fed split suggests that changing employers has paid better than staying, at least in the latest reading.

Before you ask for a number, pull the percentile data for your title. We explain how to negotiate using the 75th percentile and why the median wage is usually a better midpoint than the mean. If you work remotely, check how location-based pay adjustments could change the offer.

What this means if you set pay

For employers and HR teams, the useful discipline is to separate three questions: what the market pays for the role today, how fast that is moving, and what you can afford. Industry growth speaks to the second. The first needs occupation-level data by state and percentile. Budgeting a merit increase equal to the national average wage index change, for instance, would apply an economy-wide figure to a very specific labor market.

If you also look at projections, note that job outlook and job growth are different measures. Employment growth does not automatically equal pay growth.

Our perspective

We built Salary Atlas because wage data should not sit behind a paywall or rely on guesses. Every figure we publish comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, links back to its source, and is refreshed annually. We do not use self-reported or scraped salaries, and we do not invent trends to fill a gap.

That shapes how we think about wage growth by industry. A tidy chart of "growth by sector" is easy to make and easy to get wrong, because the measure underneath may be an average distorted by who is employed that month. We would rather tell you which measure you are looking at, say what it cannot show, and send you to the original release. When a number is missing, we leave it blank rather than estimate it.

Our advice is to treat industry growth as the weather and occupation pay as the map. The weather tells you whether conditions favor a raise. The map tells you what to ask for.

, Joelen Zyoktova

Look up pay for your own job

Industry trends are only the start. If you want the actual numbers for a specific role, Salary Atlas shows BLS-sourced hourly and annual pay by job title, percentile and state, with no signup. As an example, see our software developer salary page, or start from the Salary Atlas homepage to search any occupation.

FAQ

Which industry has the highest wage growth?

It changes with the month, the measure and whether you look at average earnings or median growth of the same workers. The Atlanta Fed publishes an industry breakdown of its tracker, and the BLS publishes average hourly earnings by sector. Check both for the period you care about rather than relying on a ranking from an older article.

Is the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker better than average hourly earnings?

For measuring a typical worker's raise, usually yes. It follows the same individuals 12 months apart, so changes in who is employed do not distort it. Average hourly earnings are still useful for seeing the pay level in a sector.

Is the national average wage index the same as wage growth?

No. The SSA index is an average per worker across the whole economy, built for benefit calculations. Its 2025 value rose 4.23 percent over 2024, but that figure says nothing precise about any one industry.

How do I know if my raise beat inflation?

Subtract the year-over-year inflation rate from your percentage raise. The BLS publishes real earnings releases that already make this adjustment for average hourly earnings, so you can compare your own pay change with the real trend.